Today, November 4, 2026, it’s 13 degrees warmer than seasonal averages in Montreal. According to Météo Média, the heat index is expected to reach 22 degrees this afternoon. So what do we do—break out the flip-flops?
This heat wave, which will last a few days, is representative of the second half of the fall we’re going to have—a bit too mild, a bit unsettled, warmed by the influence of “El Niño.” Through Wednesday, November 11, temperatures will be well above seasonal averages.
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HEAT RECORD NEARLY BROKEN FOR NOVEMBER 4, 2026
In 2022, it was over 20 degrees on November 4. Today, we’ll come close to the heat record for the start of a month that’s usually quite cool. Last year, in 2025, it was almost snowing.
According to Météo Média, the temperatures forecast for Montreal over the next few days are:
- Wednesday, November 4 / high of 20 degrees
- Thursday, November 5 / high of 17 degrees
- Friday, November 6 / high of 16 degrees
After that, temperatures will drop back to levels slightly above normal but around 10 degrees, so less cause for concern.
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IS “Super El Niño” TO BLAME?
We absolutely must talk about the “El Niño” weather phenomenon. After a very, very cold winter, it returned to the Montreal skies in June 2026.
El Niño is a weather phenomenon caused by a thermal anomaly in the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean. A “Super El Niño” is a thermal anomaly with a temperature difference in the water exceeding 2 degrees—it’s a “supercharged” version of the phenomenon that occurs only about once every five years.
The “Super El Niño” phenomenon will last between 12 and 28 months.
For the Montreal summer, this means the weather will remain unsettled: hot, wet, and muggy, then cooler and stormy. As for winter, it’s a bit more worrisome.
Environment Canada has already stated that this year will “likely be among the warmest on record.” Winter will be warmer than usual, and the risk of heavy rain (instead of snow) and freezing rain will be significantly higher.
But in Montreal, we’ve seen worse. We do recommend, however, investing in a good (and stylish) umbrella, or one of those poncho-style “bucket hats.” And, of course, a good pair of rain boots to wear with thick wool socks.
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